آموزش و سیکلهای تجاری: مورد مطالعه وضعیت آموزش از راه دور در دور ه های رونق و رکود

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار، دانشگاه پیام نور، ایران

چکیده

چکیده
هدف مقاله بررسی تاثیر شرایط دوره های رونق و رکود بر نرخ ثبت نام دانشگاه پیام نور سطح کشور طی سالهای 1397-1384 می باشد. بر این اساس از روش داده های ترکیبی بر اساس داده های استانی استفاده گردیده اس. نتایج مقاله نشان میدهد که سهم دانشجویان دانشگاه پیام نور به کل دانشجویان در استانهای کشور در دوره های رونق کاهش یافته و در مقابل این سهم در دوره های رکود اقتصادی مثبت می باشد. نتایج همچنان نشان میدهد که شدت تاثیر گذاری در دوره های رونق و رکود نسبتا کم و خیلی کم می باشد. بنابراین میتوان اظهار نمود که نرخ ثبت نام در دانشگاه پیام نور رفتار ضد سیکلی دارد. این نتایج تایید کننده این است که افراد تحت تاثیر هزینه خود در زمان ثبت نام در این دانشگاه هستند. نتایج این مقاله می تواند به مدیریت دانشگاه کمک نماید که در شرایط رونق و یا رکود چه سیاستهایی اتخاذ نمایند. در مطالعات گذشته عمدتا به تاثیر رشد اقتصادی بر نرخ ثبت نام توجه داشته در حالی که در این مقاله به تاثیر نوسانات کلی اقتصاد در شکل دوره های رونق و رکود پرداخته شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Education and Business Cycles The Case Study of Distance Education in Boom and Depression

نویسنده [English]

  • Alireza Eghbali
Assistant Professor, Payame Nour University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Today, in planning around university administration, in addition to many issues, there is a need to estimate the demand for higher education in the coming years. Among the factors influencing the demand for higher education are economic conditions and variables. Prosperity and recession are among these conditions that have not been addressed in studies conducted in Iran.Education can be influenced by business cycles for many reasons. Prosperity and recession periods increase a person's motivation to grow specialized skills, on one hand, and due to the right business conditions and the rising opportunity costs,Encounter with more costs to assign time for the education on the other hand ; therefore it can decrease the motivation of education. The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of boom and bust periods on the enrollment rate of Payame Noor University in the country during the years 2005-2015. Accordingly, the combined data method based on provincial data has been used. The results of the article show that the share of Payame Noor University students to the total number of students in the provinces of the country during the boom periods has decreased and in contrast, this share is positive during the recession periods. The results also show that the intensity of impact in periods of boom and bust is relatively low and very low. Therefore, it can be stated that the enrollment rate in Payame Noor University has anti-cyclical behavior. These results confirm that people are affected by their cost at the time of enrollment in this university. The results of this article can help university management what policies to adopt in times of prosperity or recession. In previous studies, the effect of economic growth on the enrollment rate has been mainly considered, while in this article, the effect of general economic fluctuations in the form of boom and bust periods has been discussed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Boom
  • Depression
  • Education
  • Payam Noor University
Ashrafzadeh, S. H. R., & Mehregan, N. (2009). Panel data econometrics. Tehran: University of Tehran Press. [Persian].
Becker, G. (1964). Human capital: A theoretical analysis of special reference to education. New York: Columbia University Press.
Bedard, K., & Herman, D. (2008). Who goes to graduate/professional school? the importance of economic fluctuations, undergraduate field, and ability. Economics of Education Review, 27(2), 197-210.
Ben-Porath, Y. (1967). The production of human capital and the lifecycle of earnings. Journal of Political Economy, 75(4), 352-356.
Berger, M. C., & Kostal, T. (2002). Financial resources, regulation, and enrollment in us public higher education, Economics of Education Review, 21(2), 101-110.
Betts, J. R., & McFarland, L. L. (1995). Safe port in a storm: The impact of labor market conditions on community colleges enrollments. Journal of Human Resources, 30(4), 741-765.
Black, D. A., McKinnish, T. G., & Sanders, S. G. (2005). Tight labor markets and the demand for education: evidence from the coal boom and bust. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 59(1), 2-16.
Card, D., & Lemieux, T. (2001). Dropout and enrollment trends in the post-war period: what went wrong in the 1970s?. In J. Gruber (Ed.), Risky behavior among youths: an economic analysis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Carrell, S. E. (2007). The national internal labor market encounters the local labor market: effects on employee retention. Labor Economics, 14(5), 774-787.
Christian, M. S. (2007). Liquidity constraints and the cyclicality of college enrollment in the united states. Oxford Economic Papers, 59(1), 141-169.
Clark, D. (2011). Do recessions keep students in school? the impact of youth unemployment on enrollment in post-compulsory education in England, Economica, 78(311), 523-545.
Clothfelter, C. T., Ladd, H. F., & Vigdor, J. L. (2010). Teacher credentials and student achievement in high school: a cross subject analysis with student fixed effects. Journal of Human Resources,45(3), 655-681.
Clothfelter, C. T., Ladd, H. F., & Vigdor, J. L.(2007).Teacher credentials and student achievement: Longitudinal analysis with student fixed effects. Economics of Education Review, 26(6), 673-682.
Dellas, H., & Sakellaris, P. (2003). On the cyclicality of schooling: Theory and evidence. Oxford Economic Papers, 55(1), 148-172.
Dellas, H., & Koubi, V. (2003). Business cycles and schooling. European Journal of Political Economy, 19(4), 843-859.
Fredriksson, P. (1997). Economic incentives and the demand for higher education. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 99(1), 129-142.
Goldhaber, D. (2007). Everyone’s doing it, but what does teacher testing tell us about teacher effectiveness?. Journal of Human Resources, 42(4), 765-794.
Goldhaber, D., & Anthony, E. (2007). Can teacher quality be effectively assessed? national board certification as a signal of effective teaching. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 134-150.
Gorji, I., & Eghbali, A. (2019). Business cycles: Basic and methods of measurement. Tehran: Sorena Publications. [Persian]
Gustman, A. L., & Steinmeier, T. L. (1981). The impact of wages and unemployment on youth enrollment and labor supply. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 63(2), 553-560.
Hadian, I., & Hashempour, M. R. (2003). Identifying business cycles in iran economic. Quarterly Journal of Iran Economic Research, 15(3), 93-120. [Persian]
Hanushek, E. A., & Rivkin, S. G. (2006). Teacher quality. In E. A. Hanushek & F. Welch (Eds.), Handbook of the economics of education (Vol. 2, PP. 1051-1078). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Hodrick, R. J., & Prescott, E. C. (1997). Postwar U.S. Business cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 1-16.
Hosseinzade, A. H., & Mombeini, M. (2018). The role of cultural, social, economic capital on educational inequality. Journal of Eduational Sciences, 6(1), 213-232. [Persian]
Humphreys, B. R. (2000). Do business cycles affect state appropriations to higher education?. Southern Economic Journal, 67(2), 398-413.
Ismaili, B. (2018). The role of occurrence of business cycles in the overdue receivables of the country's banks using intermediate filters. Financial Economics, 12(44), 161-188.
Johnson, M. T. (2013). The impact of business cycle fluctuation on graduate school enrollment. Economic of Education Review, 34(1), 122-134.
Kahn, L. B. (2010). The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy. Labor Economics, 17(2), 303-316.
Kane, T. J. (1994). College entry by blacks since 1970: the role of college costs, family background, and the returns to education. Journal of Political Economy, 102(5), 878-911.
Kienzl, G. S., Alfonso, M., & Melguizo, T. (2007). The effect of local labor market conditions in the 1990 on the likelihood of community college students’ persistence and attainment. Research in Higher Education, 48(7), 751-774.
Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1972). Expectations and the neutrality of money. Journal of Economic Theory, 4(2), 103-112.
Mohammadi Chamrani, M. N., & Rahmani, H .(2019). Identifying the effective factors in the success of E-Learning courses. Journal of Educational Sciences, 6(1), 137-154. [Persian]
Oreopoulos, P. (2007). Do dropouts drop out too soon? wealth, health, and happiness from compulsory schooling. Journal of Public Economics, 91(12), 2213–2229.
Oreopoulos, P., Von Wachter, T., & Heisz, A. (2012). The short- and long-term career effects of graduating in a recession. American Economic Journal, 4(1), 1-29.
Oyer, P. (2006). Initial labor market conditions and long-term outcomes for economists. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(3), 143-160.
Pennington, K. L., McGinty, D., & Williams, M. R. (2002). Community college enrollment as a function of economic indicators. Community College Journal of Research and Practice, 26(5), 431-437.
Plan and Budget Organization. (2020). Iran statistical yearbook. https://www.amar.org.ir/english. [Persian]
Reiling, R. B, & Bjarne, S. (2015). Upper secondary school completion and the business cycle. Scand. Journal of Economics, 117(1), 195-219.
Rice, P .(1999). The impact of local labor markets on investment in further education: evidence from the england and wales youth cohort studies. Journal of Population Economics, 12(2), 287-312.
Samadi, A. H. (2012). Spurious relations in econometrics. Tehran: Noore Elm Press. [Persian]
Tabatabaiejabali, Z., Delavar, A., Farrokhi, N., & Asgari, M. (2020). Evelopment and validation a model of the evaluation process of promotion of faculty Members Zahra.  Journal of Educational Sciences, 27(2), 253-276. [Persian]
Vaghoor Kashani, M. S.,. Haji Hossein Nejad, Gh. R., Mousapour, N., & Ebrahim Zadeh, I. (2019). Designing and validating a conceptual model for the evaluation of teachers’ professional competencies in Iran. Journal of Educational Sciences, 26(2), 27-50. [Persian]
Windolf, P., & Joachim, H. (1993). Higher education and the business cycle 1870-1990: A cross-national comparison. International Journal of Comparative Sociology, 34(3-4), 167-191.